Book on the Pay-Off Method
The Pay-Off Method: Re-Inventing Investment Analysis – With numerical application examples from different industries by Mikael Collan, 2012
This is the first book on the pay-off method and the application of the method in a real world setting. The book is managerially written and includes a number of numerical examples of how the method can be used in the industry.
Available at the Createspace on-line bookstore or at Amazon.
Journal paper, in Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences
Collan, M., Fullér, R., and Mezei, J., 2009, A Fuzzy Pay-Off Method for Real Option Valuation, Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences, vol. 2009, Article ID 238196, 14 pages, 2009. doi:10.1155/2009/238196 Download the full paper from this link
The name of the journal has changed to “Advances in Decision Sciences”
Errata: Observe that figure 3 in the published journal paper has an error; the real option value is incorrect – the correct ROV for the project is 7,96. The figure is correctly reproduced on the pay-off method page.
Conference proceedings: IEEE BIFE 2009 in Beijing
Collan, M., Fullér, R., and Mezei, J., 2009, A Fuzzy Pay-Off Method for Real Option Valuation, Proceedings of the 2nd IEEE International Conference on Business Intelligence, July 24-26, Beijing, PRC
First working paper
Collan, M., 2008, A New Method for Real Option Valuation Using Fuzzy Numbers, IAMSR Research Report 7/2008 Download from RePEc
Errata: Observe that there is a typo in the pdf! the correct value for the real option = same as the single number possibilistic mean for the whole pay-off distribution is 26,51
1st Draft of journal paper
This is the first draft sent for publication, in the current version major changes to this draft have been made and the paper has been for many parts rewritten and reorganized Download from RePEc
Conference paper (XIII Annual International Conference on Real Options)
Collan, M., Fullér, R., and Mezei, J., 2009, Compound Real Options with the Fuzzy Pay-off Method, 13th Annual International Conference on Real Options, June 17-20, 2009; Minho, Portugal & Santiago de Compostela, Spain Link to abstract
Based on the logic presented at the Pay-off method we are working on extending the model to use credibility theory.
Conference paper 4th International Conference on Applied Operational Research
Collan, M., Fullér R., and Mezei, J., 2011, Pay-Off Method for Real Option Valuation: A Credibilistic Approach, in Gunalay, Y. and Kadipasaogly, S., (Eds.), 2011, Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Applied Operational Research, Lecture Notes in Management Science, 3,1, 179-192, 24.-26.8.2011 Istanbul, Turkey Link to full text PDF
Paper on a credibilistic approach to the pay-off method.
This is an extension of the method into the realm of credibility theory.
Collan, M., Fullér, R., and Mezei, J., 2012, Credibilistic approach to the fuzzy pay-off method for real option analysis, Journal of Applied Operational Research, 4, 4, 174-182 (ISSN 1927-0089 on-line) Full text PDF
PRESENTATIONS ON THE (FUZZY) PAY-OFF METHOD AND THE APPLICATION OF THE METHOD
A very short Introduction slideshow presentation of the method (pdf) Download
13th Annual International Conference on RO presentation slides; Compound RO with the pay-off method Download (pdf)
14th Annual International Conference (Rome, Italy 2010) on RO, M&A Strategy: Post-Acquisition Strategy as a Combination of Real Options Download (pdf)
Patent Valuation using Fuzzy Numbers, presentation by Xiaolu Wang Link to presentation
Presentation of how the pay-off method can be used in evaluating the benefits from phasing as a real estate construction strategy, by Mikael Collan (Presented in Palacky University, Olomouc, the Czech Republic in October 2011) Presentation as PDF
Keynote Presentation from the 4th International Conference on Applied Operational Research (ICAOR) held 25.-27.7.2012 in Bangkok Presentation as PDF