Publications & Presentations

Book on the Pay-Off Method

The Pay-Off Method: Re-Inventing Investment Analysis – With numerical application examples from different industries by Mikael Collan, 2012

This is the first book on the pay-off method and the application of the method in a real world setting. The book is managerially written and includes a number of numerical examples of how the method can be used in the industry.

Available at the Createspace on-line bookstore.

Journal paper, in Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences

Collan, M., Fullér, R., and Mezei, J., 2009, A Fuzzy Pay-Off Method for Real Option Valuation, Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences, vol. 2009, Article ID 238196, 14 pages, 2009. doi:10.1155/2009/238196 Download the full paper from this link

The name of the journal has changed to “Advances in Decision Sciences”

Errata: Observe that figure 3 in the published journal paper has an error; the real option value is incorrect – the correct ROV for the project is 7,96. The figure is correctly reproduced on the pay-off method page.

Conference proceedings: IEEE BIFE 2009 in Beijing

Collan, M., Fullér, R., and Mezei, J., 2009, A Fuzzy Pay-Off Method for Real Option Valuation, Proceedings of the 2nd IEEE International Conference on Business Intelligence, July 24-26, Beijing, PRC Link to IEEE proceedings abstract & paper download

First working paper

Collan, M., 2008, A New Method for Real Option Valuation Using Fuzzy Numbers, IAMSR Research Report 7/2008 Download from RePEc

Errata: Observe that there is a typo in the pdf! the correct value for the real option = same as the single number possibilistic mean for the whole pay-off distribution is 26,51

1st Draft of journal paper

This is the first draft sent for publication, in the current version major changes to this draft have been made and the paper has been for many parts rewritten and reorganized Download from RePEc

Conference paper (XIII Annual International Conference on Real Options)

Collan, M., Fullér, R., and Mezei, J., 2009, Compound Real Options with the Fuzzy Pay-off Method, 13th Annual International Conference on Real Options, June 17-20, 2009; Minho, Portugal & Santiago de Compostela, Spain  Download full paper. (new version of the full paper uploaded 8/2010)

Based on the logic presented at the Pay-off method we are working on extending the model to use credibility theory.

Conference paper 4th International Conference on Applied Operational Research

Collan, M., Fullér R., and Mezei, J., 2011, Pay-Off Method for Real Option Valuation: A Credibilistic Approach, in Gunalay, Y. and Kadipasaogly, S., (Eds.), 2011, Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Applied Operational Research, Lecture Notes in Management Science, 3,1, 179-192, 24.-26.8.2011 Istanbul, Turkey –  ICAOR 2011 book of abstracts download PDF

Paper on a credibilistic approach to the pay-off method.

This is an extension of the method into the realm of credibility theory.

Collan, M., Fullér, R., and Mezei, J., 2012, Credibilistic approach to the fuzzy pay-off
method for real option analysis, Journal of Applied Operational Research, 4, 4, 174-182 (ISSN 1927-0089 on-line) download full paper in PDF

PRESENTATIONS ON THE (FUZZY) PAY-OFF METHOD AND THE APPLICATION OF THE METHOD

A very short Introduction slideshow presentation of the method (ppt) Download

A slideshow presentation about the method, with introduction (pdf) by Jozef Mezei Download

13th Annual International Conference on RO presentation slides; Compound RO with the pay-off method Download ppt

14th Annual International Conference (Rome, Italy 2010) on RO, M&A Strategy: Post-Acquisition Strategy as a Combination of Real Options Download PDF

Patent Valuation using Fuzzy Numbers, presentation by Xiaolu Wang Link to presentation  Download presentation as a PDF

Presentation of how the pay-off method can be used in evaluating the benefits from phasing as a real estate construction strategy, by Mikael Collan (Presented in Palacky University, Olomouc, the Czech Republic in October 2011) Presentation as PDF

Keynote Presentation from the 4th International Conference on Applied Operational Research (ICAOR) held 25.-27.7.2012 in Bangkok Presentation as PDF